snopes.com  

Go Back   snopes.com > Non-UL Chat > Crash and Burn

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #101  
Old 14 March 2014, 08:59 AM
lord_feldon's Avatar
lord_feldon lord_feldon is offline
 
Join Date: 08 August 2007
Location: Ohio
Posts: 12,291
Airplane Radar data suggests missing Malaysia plane flown deliberately toward Andamans

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/0...A2D05S20140314

Military radar-tracking evidence suggests a Malaysia Airlines jetliner missing for nearly a week was deliberately flown across the Malay peninsula towards the Andaman Islands, sources familiar with the investigation told Reuters on Friday.

Two sources said an unidentified aircraft that investigators believe was Flight MH370 was following a route between navigational waypoints - indicating it was being flown by someone with aviation training - when it was last plotted on military radar off the country's northwest coast.
Reply With Quote
  #102  
Old 14 March 2014, 09:12 AM
Richard W's Avatar
Richard W Richard W is offline
 
Join Date: 19 February 2000
Location: High Wycombe, UK
Posts: 23,030
Default

So that's what that mysterious, notoriously hostile, uncontacted Sentinelese tribe has been planning all this time! They pretended to have no technology beyond spears, but now they've got an airliner!

I wonder if these are the same "sources familiar with the investigation" that have come out with all the other rumours that turned out to be false? These ones aren't called "US officials" though, so their false reports are probably less reliable than the false reports being leaked by the US investigators.
Reply With Quote
  #103  
Old 14 March 2014, 06:59 PM
crescent's Avatar
crescent crescent is offline
 
Join Date: 13 August 2008
Location: St. George, UT
Posts: 2,050
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard W View Post
So that's what that mysterious, notoriously hostile, uncontacted Sentinelese tribe has been planning all this time! They pretended to have no technology beyond spears, but now they've got an airliner!
It's a Cargo cult's prophesies come true.
Reply With Quote
  #104  
Old 14 March 2014, 10:06 PM
E. Q. Taft's Avatar
E. Q. Taft E. Q. Taft is offline
 
Join Date: 30 July 2003
Location: San Diego, CA
Posts: 12,548
Default

You know, I should have considered the Cargo Cult hypothesis before now. But then they should have probably been heading east...
Reply With Quote
  #105  
Old 15 March 2014, 02:22 AM
Alchemy Alchemy is offline
 
Join Date: 05 March 2001
Location: Plymouth, MI
Posts: 4,297
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmy101_again View Post
As I posted earlier, the radio system already exists, and is in use, except it doesn't include position data. Since the basic system already exists the concerns on cost, validation etc. of GenYus234 are really not an issue.
As I posted earlier, the system you're talking about already exists, it's called ADS-B, and it's in the process of being installed on all(?) transport-category aircraft in North American and European airspace by ~2020. The 777 in this incident was broadcasting ADS-B and a portion of its flight path is known through terrestrial ADS-B receiving stations recording the information and releasing it publicly.
Reply With Quote
  #106  
Old 15 March 2014, 04:42 AM
snopes's Avatar
snopes snopes is offline
 
Join Date: 18 February 2000
Location: California
Posts: 108,557
Jolly Roger Investigators conclude missing jet was hijacked, Malaysian official says

Investigators have concluded that one or more people with significant flying experience hijacked the missing Malaysia Airlines jet, switched off communication devices and steered it off course, a Malaysian government official involved in the investigation said.

http://www.latimes.com/world/worldno...0,356436.story
Reply With Quote
  #107  
Old 15 March 2014, 08:38 AM
kia's Avatar
kia kia is offline
 
Join Date: 07 February 2012
Location: Sydney, Australia
Posts: 173
Default

Police began searching the home of the pilot of the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 on Saturday, after the country's prime minister confirmed the plane was suspected to have been deliberately diverted, a senior police official told Reuters.

http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking...ficial-2014031
Reply With Quote
  #108  
Old 16 March 2014, 05:47 PM
Singing in the Drizzle Singing in the Drizzle is offline
 
Join Date: 24 November 2005
Location: Bellingham, WA
Posts: 4,397
Default

My bet assuming the plane was hijacked was they were going to try and land in Myanmar (Burma) with a second guess being Bangladesh. Then they would quietly transport and ransom the hostages at a later time when they have them in a safe place. So far nothing has changed my mind on that guess.

Of course at the first I only thought it was a very small outside possibility, but now hijacking looks to be the most likely thing that happen. Now it is were did the plane fly to and did land or crash.
Reply With Quote
  #109  
Old 16 March 2014, 09:33 PM
jimmy101_again jimmy101_again is offline
 
Join Date: 29 December 2005
Location: Greenwood, IN
Posts: 5,106
Default

If the plane was flown anywhere near land wouldn't it have been picked up on radar as a UFO? (Literally an unidentified aircraft since it presumably wasn't squaking a radio beacon.) A plane that big can't land at any old air field and big air fields are generally located in places with pretty good radar coverage. ... I think it is pretty unlikely that it was diverted to an airfield somewhere and managed to go undetected.
Reply With Quote
  #110  
Old 16 March 2014, 09:52 PM
kia's Avatar
kia kia is offline
 
Join Date: 07 February 2012
Location: Sydney, Australia
Posts: 173
Default

The theory I've read on various forums is that to avoid showing on primary radar, it would have had to tail another aircraft the whole way. Apparently theoretically possible, but quite difficult to manage safely and thoroughly. Would take a skilled pilot and not say, hijackers who had only a rudimentary knowledge of flying.

(plus there are some areas on the northern 'arc' that has been put forward as one of two possible options (the other being the 'southern' arc, meaning it crashed somewhere in the Indian Ocean as opposed to being taken somewhere north) where there would be no radar coverage - presumably such able hijackers would have known this already, if they were able to pull off such a feat)

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalk...line-insiders/

Last edited by kia; 16 March 2014 at 09:57 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #111  
Old 16 March 2014, 10:15 PM
UEL's Avatar
UEL UEL is offline
 
Join Date: 01 August 2004
Location: Gloucester, ON
Posts: 6,847
Baseball

Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmy101_again View Post
If the plane was flown anywhere near land wouldn't it have been picked up on radar as a UFO?... A plane that big can't land at any old air field and big air fields are generally located in places with pretty good radar coverage. ... I think it is pretty unlikely that it was diverted to an airfield somewhere and managed to go undetected.
OK, up front, I'm not involved in flying internationally. I am speaking solely based upon my knowledge, understanding and experience of working and flying in South Asia from a few years ago.

Plus, jimmy, I'm just using your post as a jumping off point.

As far as radar coverage goes, it has been well established that it is not as comprehensive in Asia as we have it in Europe, North America and Australia/New Zealand. However, if you get an air chart of the world, the entire planet is covered with zones, so, theoretically, you are under the control of someone no matter where you are flying. In reality, though, much of the coverage is what is called "procedural".

For example, some countries have no regional air traffic control radars, and may have one short range radar around their major airports. They will have radio communications and the procedure is to check in when you enter their zone and they will direct you. If you are approaching an airport with no radar, your landing is purely procedural for clearances, meaning, you tell the tower where you are, and they direct you on how to land. There is no confirmation other than a pilot reporting position.**

Other countries have some radar coverage, but it is military radar coverage. Several of these countries do not like reporting what they find because it will be revealing some of their military capability.

Another point, several countries may have radars that can see out into the ocean, but if they don't have control over that airspace, the results can be (and usually are) filtered out so that the controller looking at the screen does not get bothered by the 'noise' on the screen. What will have to happen is that investigators will have to sift though those hours of unfiltered monitoring (if they were kept) to see if an unidentified plane did fly by.

Finally, several countries have their air zones capped at a much lower level than the West. Some regions have the local air traffic control ceiling at 12k feet ASL. Anything higher than that is under someone else's zone. So, like the previous radar, the result may have been filtered out.

Speculation time: as whomever executed the hard left turn definitely knew what they were doing, they could very well have selected a route that took them through aerospace control zones with little to no air traffic control radar. And when flying near areas that did have ATC radar, they would be careful to fly beyond normal coverage, thus having their track filtered.

Pakistan and Afghanistan have large sections of the country not covered by any air traffic control radars (or military ones) and I know of several runways that are long enough to land a plane that size.

I do suspect that the plane is underwater right now, but the hypothesis can still be supported that it flew to a predetermined destination and landed undetected.

**In '04, a German colleague was flying his UAV in Kabul when an Ariana Airlines plane that had not checked in executed an apporach into Kabul Airport. The slides from the nose camera made their way around the world with the subtitle "why drones can't share airspace with manned aircraft". What was galling was that the UAV was right where it should have been and the manned aircraft wasn't. But, it was good for fear mongering for about three years about unmanned dangers.
Reply With Quote
  #112  
Old 16 March 2014, 10:52 PM
jimmy101_again jimmy101_again is offline
 
Join Date: 29 December 2005
Location: Greenwood, IN
Posts: 5,106
Default

UEL

If the various systems often filter out traffic that the controller wouldn't have control of does that also mean the radar logs are also filtered?


BTW I wonder if there was a US carrier group anywhere in the south china sea. I would think their radar would track anything in the air within a pretty significant range. Hmmm, Wikipedia says typical AWACS can see about 250 miles. Not far enough to cover the entire area. Though that still creates an unknown for any potential hijacker since they would have no idea where a carrier group was located.

Nut jobs claim that an AWACs can hide another aircraft and, as on 9/11, this was a "gov't job". (http://beforeitsnews.com/alternative...s-2916516.html)
Reply With Quote
  #113  
Old 16 March 2014, 11:08 PM
UEL's Avatar
UEL UEL is offline
 
Join Date: 01 August 2004
Location: Gloucester, ON
Posts: 6,847
Baseball

Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmy101_again View Post
UEL

If the various systems often filter out traffic that the controller wouldn't have control of does that also mean the radar logs are also filtered?
I suppose the answer to that would be "depends upon the radar".

I know the radars we use (military ones, mind you) keep all the data. But the civy ones, I don't know.
Reply With Quote
  #114  
Old 16 March 2014, 11:52 PM
Richard W's Avatar
Richard W Richard W is offline
 
Join Date: 19 February 2000
Location: High Wycombe, UK
Posts: 23,030
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by kia View Post
The theory I've read on various forums is that to avoid showing on primary radar, it would have had to tail another aircraft the whole way. Apparently theoretically possible, but quite difficult to manage safely and thoroughly. Would take a skilled pilot and not say, hijackers who had only a rudimentary knowledge of flying.
That's not really a "theory", more complete speculation - perhaps based on having read Reamde by Neal Stephenson, in which some terrorists in a private jet do just that.

I'm sure it's possible, but based on the confusion so far, and the fact that radar coverage apparently doesn't really work like that, it sounds kind of unnecessary really. You could hide from satellites by staying directly underneath another plane too, but you wouldn't need to because it seems they're not looking.
Reply With Quote
  #115  
Old 17 March 2014, 12:07 AM
Singing in the Drizzle Singing in the Drizzle is offline
 
Join Date: 24 November 2005
Location: Bellingham, WA
Posts: 4,397
Default

We are making the assumption that all costal countries in whole or in part are not hiding anything from the search. This is why Myanmar is first on my list plus very little radar coverage to get there.

ETA: Just wanted to add this is speculation and guesses based on what little is known. I'm much more than likely wrong.
Reply With Quote
  #116  
Old 17 March 2014, 02:06 AM
ganzfeld's Avatar
ganzfeld ganzfeld is offline
 
Join Date: 05 September 2005
Location: Kyoto, Japan
Posts: 19,214
Icon05

I'm wracking my brain but I can't think of any reason Myanmar would have of hiding info on a lost commercial plane - especially one that China is extremely interested in knowing about.
Reply With Quote
  #117  
Old 17 March 2014, 02:28 AM
crocoduck_hunter's Avatar
crocoduck_hunter crocoduck_hunter is offline
 
Join Date: 27 May 2009
Location: Roseburg, OR
Posts: 6,919
Default

According to the evening news, the plane is now believed to most likely have crashed in the India Ocean off the east coast of Australia. They're searching a 1000+ mile long strip looking for it, apparently.
Reply With Quote
  #118  
Old 17 March 2014, 05:15 AM
Alchemy Alchemy is offline
 
Join Date: 05 March 2001
Location: Plymouth, MI
Posts: 4,297
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard W View Post
Oh, and from that article it appears that the engines - not the plane itself - already transmit their position and status every 30 minutes, back to Rolls Royce and Boeing.
MH370 reported some engine data via two separate ACARS communications during the flight, which are likely "engine health reports" typical of this generation of aircraft. This data was meant for the engine manufacturer. The engines have computers and data storage within their housings but, by themselves, do not and can not communicate with any entity other than the flight deck instruments. They simply reported some information to the flight deck computers and those computers dutifully included the data in their maintenance datalink. "Hey, the engines have a takeoff report for you; here's the data. Hey, the engines have a climb report for you; here's the data." Presumably this data was transmitted via VHF and not satcoms but this is not clear yet.

Quote:
Originally Posted by E. Q. Taft View Post
The standard air-traffic-control type of radar sends out signals that get responses from the transponders on the planes. Eliminate those, and you're dependent on "skin-paint" type radars, which mainly are used by the military.
Most ATC radar installations use both primary ("skin paint") radar and secondary (transponder) radar. Primary radar helps confirm secondary radar responses, allows weather observation, etc. When an aircraft stops transmitting via transponder it complicates tracking but it doesn't quite drop off the grid either.
Reply With Quote
  #119  
Old 17 March 2014, 02:09 PM
Troberg Troberg is offline
 
 
Join Date: 04 November 2005
Location: Borlänge, Sweden
Posts: 11,388
Default

My guess about what has happened:

It's not terrorism. Why?

* Destroying an aircraft over open sea is not very spectacular. It simply doesn't fit the profile of the typical terrorist, which is either "Destroy something spectacularly!" or "Threaten a bunch of people and make demands!".
* No one has credibly claimed responsibility.

The aircraft is not stolen. Why?

* Seriously, how many airports are there that could take a plane that size? Don't you think the air traffic controllers would kind of notice when they land? You don't just plop it down in your back yard.
* No reason to steal it. You can't sell it. You can't use it for terrorism, because every air force in range will be on high alert.

It suffered a catastrophic failure of some kind and crashed. Probably, it broke up midair, with no time to react or report. Why?

* Several kinds of failures can do that. Turbine failures, fuel explosions, engines reversing (happened to Lauda Air), midair collision and a bunch of other things. When stuff like that happens, things happens fast.
* The sea is big. Very big. Ships that had to be abandoned has been lost for a long time before being found. A plane is small, very small. Debris is even smaller. It's easy to miss.
* Oil slicks in the sea. Wouldn't they be visible? Perhaps, but if it was an explosion or the aircraft broke up at high altitude, there wouldn't be any.
* Satellite imagery is not exactly a live video, and it takes a lot of skilled work and time to analyze. The sea is big.

If it was not a catstrophic failure, my second guess would be a massive electrical failure, probably due to some other failure, such as a turbine failure or fire, but could also be an unlucky lightning strike. Why?

* It would make the aircraft unflyable, yet unable to communicate.
* It could very well fly for a while, taking it well off course, thus making it hard to find.
* Once again, the sea is big. Very big.

It could also be a very large shark that jumped out of the water and snatched it from the sky. I find it about as likely as the terrorist theory, though. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jx9zf8Bv2tM
Reply With Quote
  #120  
Old 17 March 2014, 04:36 PM
Graham2001's Avatar
Graham2001 Graham2001 is offline
 
Join Date: 21 January 2006
Location: Perth, Australia
Posts: 627
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by crocoduck_hunter View Post
According to the evening news, the plane is now believed to most likely have crashed in the India Ocean off the east coast of Australia. They're searching a 1000+ mile long strip looking for it, apparently.
The search is off the West Coast....!
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Orangutans Plan Their Future Route and Communicate It to Others snopes Wild Kingdom 0 12 September 2013 02:57 AM
Who are Beijing's naked 'sex doll' couple? snopes NFBSK Gone Wild! 0 03 April 2013 06:00 PM
Horse bolts from track & runs down US Route 1 DawnStorm Wild Kingdom 0 11 January 2013 10:53 PM
Route 66 diverted from Santa Fe snopes Automobiles 4 25 March 2010 04:22 PM
Pirates in Malaysia snopes Snopes Spotting 0 20 July 2007 11:26 PM


All times are GMT. The time now is 03:51 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.