"Flu viruses survive in frozen lakes"

[jw]

A buddy of mine tells me that he heard a scientist say that new viruses are emerging because of the melting polar caps. Doctors apparently are afraid that they won't be able to deal with new strains.
I could only find this, and the ENN link,scroll down to "Flu viruses survive in frozen lakes"

[Seaboe Muffinchucker]

If you're interested in the regeneration of ancient (or old, at least) flu viruses, you might try googling "1918 flu virus recreation." There are a number of hits.

Seaboe

[BluesScale]

Hmmm. I am not a microbiologist but as I understand it, flu viruses have 2 different types of changes. The first happens all the time and are called "drifts". These are relatively minor changes in protein coat and the immune system does a fair job at adapting to those. Then there are shifts. There are significant changes. They typically require combination with related viruses that are found in birds, pigs and human flu. These tend to happen most often when all three species live in close proximity which happens often in the poorer parts of Asia. Shifts are nasty. Immune systems have to start pretty much from scratch and it is not good.

I wouldn't have thought that there were many flu varieties in the icecaps (although viruses can survive for very long periods) and if there were then there are limited hosts in the region. However, we have plenty of possibilities for brand new nasties.

Blues.

[medtchva]

Originally Posted by J2U

A buddy of mine tells me that he heard a scientist say that new viruses are emerging because of the melting polar caps. Doctors apparently are afraid that they won't be able to deal with new strains.
I could only find this, and the ENN link,scroll down to "Flu viruses survive in frozen lakes"

Remember that, according to science, at one time the polar caps weren't all ice. It's conceivable that viruses that once inhabited species in these areas that no longer exist were frozen in the ice. Viruses are often stored in temps of -70° or below, so why couldn't there be ones in polar caps that will be still viable when defrosted?

[Pseudo_Croat]

I wonder if the threat of viruses unknown to us being frozen in time somewhere is generally overblown. After all, what's the worst that generally happened historically when a new virus is introduced to the human species? Not just a virus introduced in a place where it never existed before, but something entirely new to the civilized world. What are the historic precedents for that?

- Pseudo_Croat

[Der Jägermeister]

Originally Posted by Pseudo_Croat

I wonder if the threat of viruses unknown to us being frozen in time somewhere is generally overblown. After all, what's the worst that generally happened historically when a new virus is introduced to the human species? Not just a virus introduced in a place where it never existed before, but something entirely new to the civilized world. What are the historic precedents for that?

--->You mean like HIV? There may be an article about that in a newspaper or two...

--->Shane

[medtchva]

Originally Posted by Der Jägermeister

--->You mean like HIV? There may be an article about that in a newspaper or two...

--->Shane

Exactly. Also Ebola... parvovirus 19 (yes, as in the parvo that dogs get, slightly different strain)... etc.. etc...

[Pseudo_Croat]

But HIV, Ebola, and human parvo (IIRC) all were viruses that have been noted as making the jump from extant animal to human. I'm thinking more along the lines of something that had been in "suspended animation" in, say, a frozen lake or long-dead corpse and later unleashed on the human population. Has this ever happened yet?

- Pseudo_Croat

[Der Jägermeister]

Originally Posted by Pseudo_Croat

But HIV, Ebola, and human parvo (IIRC) all were viruses that have been noted as making the jump from extant animal to human. I'm thinking more along the lines of something that had been in "suspended animation" in, say, a frozen lake or long-dead corpse and later unleashed on the human population. Has this ever happened yet?

- Pseudo_Croat

--->Ah, now that is a different question! Yes, any risk of that kind of thing as the OP's friend's scientist mentioned is negligible. If (and that's a big if) polar melting and infectious diseases have any future correlation, I would guess that the biggest factor would be loss of land mass increasing population densities, within and across species.

--->Shane

[Troberg]

I'm thinking more along the lines of something that had been in "suspended animation" in, say, a frozen lake or long-dead corpse and later unleashed on the human population. Has this ever happened yet?

It happened in the TV series Regenesis, but I doubt that it's possible in real life. At the very best/worst, it's probably incredibly unlikely, almost on the same scale as salvaging DNA to create Jurassic Park.

[medtchva]

Originally Posted by Troberg

It happened in the TV series Regenesis, but I doubt that it's possible in real life. At the very best/worst, it's probably incredibly unlikely, almost on the same scale as salvaging DNA to create Jurassic Park.

Medical Investigations had an episode where a family was infected with smallpox from a couple hundred years' dead body that was frozen in a mountain and released after a very warm spring. Not an unknown virus, I know, but a cool show.

I agree a jump from thawing polar caps into humans is unlikely, unless humans decide to truly colonize those areas.

[FloridaGirl]

I showed this to my mother, who is a microbiologist. " " was her response. Well, she did go one to say that while viruses can survive in cold temperatures, the conditions have to be exactly right. She doubted the polar ice caps had such perfect conditions.

So, it's "possible" but not "probable".

[medtchva]

Originally Posted by FloridaGirl

I showed this to my mother, who is a microbiologist. " " was her response. Well, she did go one to say that while viruses can survive in cold temperatures, the conditions have to be exactly right. She doubted the polar ice caps had such perfect conditions.

So, it's "possible" but not "probable".

True, but look how they recreated the 1918 flu virus....

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/06/he...4c3d45&ei=5090

"It was the culmination of work that began a decade ago and involved fishing tiny fragments of the 1918 virus from snippets of lung tissue from two soldiers and an Alaskan woman who died in the 1918 pandemic. The soldiers' tissue had been saved in an Army pathology warehouse, and the woman had been buried in permanently frozen ground."

[FloridaGirl]

Note the virus did not survive. They had to piece its RNA together. A simple melting of snow would not have released the virus. It was dead.

[Dreams of Thinking Machines]

I really doubt that a virus in ice could survive melting into a salty ocean, exposure to UV rays, and meet a potential human host whose immune system could be infected by just a few viral particles. It seems highly unlikely.

However... I once read in a book about plagues and it stated that during a mini ice age (climate changes in general) there was a much higher incidences of pandemic plagues errupting. The author noted that in the years that the black plagues ravaged Europe and the world there was a mini ice age. And, if I recall correctly, the plagues that ravaged ancient Athens supposedly occured during a mini ice age as well.

[Pseudo_Croat]

Originally Posted by Dreams of Thinking Machines

However... I once read in a book about plagues and it stated that during a mini ice age (climate changes in general) there was a much higher incidences of pandemic plagues errupting. The author noted that in the years that the black plagues ravaged Europe and the world there was a mini ice age. And, if I recall correctly, the plagues that ravaged ancient Athens supposedly occured during a mini ice age as well.

OK, suppose a mini ice age were to happen within the next, oh, 50-100 years. Would the possiblity of a plague during that time still exist, or would modern (or futuristic) medicine prevent it?

- Pseudo_Croat

[FloridaGirl]

Originally Posted by Dreams of Thinking Machines

However... I once read in a book about plagues and it stated that during a mini ice age (climate changes in general) there was a much higher incidences of pandemic plagues errupting. The author noted that in the years that the black plagues ravaged Europe and the world there was a mini ice age. And, if I recall correctly, the plagues that ravaged ancient Athens supposedly occured during a mini ice age as well.

Remember, cold weather draws people together. Around a fire, in the house, in a church. This is why cold and flu season aren't in summer.

A pandemic is going to happen again. It's not a question of if, it's when. We have Tamiflu, which stops the flu virus from being able to penetrate mucus. Mucus is how the flu is spread. Will it be enough? No. When we have another shift of the flu virus(for example), nothing can stop it. There's no way to predict what the genetic sequence will be, so no medicine will be available. And vaccines won't help. When it happens again, it will be bad. Will we see it in our lifetimes? Our grandchildren? Who knows. But, it will happen.

[Pseudo_Croat]

Originally Posted by FloridaGirl

A pandemic is going to happen again. It's not a question of if, it's when. We have Tamiflu, which stops the flu virus from being able to penetrate mucus. Mucus is how the flu is spread. Will it be enough? No. When we have another shift of the flu virus(for example), nothing can stop it. There's no way to predict what the genetic sequence will be, so no medicine will be available. And vaccines won't help. When it happens again, it will be bad. Will we see it in our lifetimes? Our grandchildren? Who knows. But, it will happen.

So when a pandemic does start, what is the best way a modern or futuristic society and the individuals within can protect themselves? If vaccines and medicines can protect us, what can?

- Pseudo_Croat

[Hyper Squirrel]

When is the bird flu really supposed to hit?

[FloridaGirl]

M'kay, I don't have a PH.D. on the subject. However, my bio teacher has been talking about this for the past 2 weeks, so it's all fresh in my brain. Great timing I think.

Oh, he is a PH.D, if you want his email or something, or I could just ask his opinion if you want.

However, as far as my opinion goes, I don't think there's anything we can do. It happens. Mother nature and all that jazz. However, we could kill all the pigs....that might help.

Pigs can harbor both bird and human viruses of the flu. When one pig gets both, sometimes a genetic transfer between viruses occur. This is believed to the caused of the Asian and Hong Kong flus. I believe 1957 and 1963, respectively. Other animals can do this too, though, so I don't think that would help much.

As far as bird flu goes, there have been no direct tranfers from person to person. Everything has come from directly from chickens as far as we know. Until it can be transfered person to person, there's nothing to worry about. There may be a flaw in the genetic coding for it's Neuraminidase protien (the one that's responsible for getting the virus into your mucus). However, this flaw could correct itself with time. Who knows?