Why it's a mistake not to wait lazily for the bus

[snopes]

It is one of those travel decisions that regularly leaves us stumped. When standing at a bus stop for a short journey, is it better to stick it out and wait or start walking?

The answer, according to mathematicians, will delight couch potatoes everywhere. It almost always pays to wait for the next bus, however enticing the walk might seem.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle3241305.ece

[Cervus]

The best answer is, of course, entirely dependent on your situation.

Assuming the next bus will come in 20 minutes and it will take me exactly 20 minutes to walk home instead (which has actually happened to me before) it's only "wasting" energy to walk if I'm already tired. Otherwise, it's good exercise and keeps me from being bored.

For me it's also dependent on factors such as:
- Is the bus stop in the shade or full sun? What about the path I'd have to take to walk?
- Is the bus stop in a safe area, or am I likely to be approached by less-than-desirable people?
- Do I want to arrive at my destination all sweaty? How much energy do I have? Is the walking route safe?
- As the sun sets, is the bus stop well-lit, or am I safer walking home before it gets dark? (When riding the bus after dark, I'm more likely to miss my stop because there's no street light beside it.)

[zephyra]

Originally Posted by Cervus

The best answer is, of course, entirely dependent on your situation.

Assuming the next bus will come in 20 minutes and it will take me exactly 20 minutes to walk home instead (which has actually happened to me before) it's only "wasting" energy to walk if I'm already tired. Otherwise, it's good exercise and keeps me from being bored.

For me it's also dependent on factors such as:
- Is the bus stop in the shade or full sun? What about the path I'd have to take to walk?
- Is the bus stop in a safe area, or am I likely to be approached by less-than-desirable people?
- Do I want to arrive at my destination all sweaty? How much energy do I have? Is the walking route safe?
- As the sun sets, is the bus stop well-lit, or am I safer walking home before it gets dark? (When riding the bus after dark, I'm more likely to miss my stop because there's no street light beside it.)

And let's not forget:

-What am I wearing? High heels are not good for walking.
-How crowded is the bus stop?
-Have I already bought an all-day pass? I try to milk those.
-Is the bus stop clean enough for me to want to sit?

[Cervus]

Originally Posted by zephyra

-Have I already bought an all-day pass? I try to milk those.

I forgot about that aspect. In my city, buses are free for everyone with a student ID - otherwise I might walk more often.

[Silas Sparkhammer]

"When he arrived, he pointed out that it was a holiday, hence no buses were running."

I'd like to see the math. It seems to me that there are some assumptions here which may not be universal. For instance, a lot of us have destinations that aren't directly along the bus lines: we have to walk a few blocks to get to the nearest bus stop, and a few blocks from the last bus stop to our destination.

Other variables: how much faster are the buses than my walking speed? There are times of day -- traffic jams and rush hour -- when I can almost be assured of arriving at the next bus stop before the bus will! There are also times when I can be quite confident that the next bus to stop will be full!

My only guess is that situations that contradict the conclusion of this study are also situations that are exceptionally bad urban mass-transit planning.

Now, there is a lovely mathematical demonstration for why buses tend to clump up. "We like to go in convoys, we're most gregarious," as said Flanders and Swann. This is fairly obvious; the first bus in a sequence has to stop and take time to load up all the people who have waited. The next bus has fewer people to take on, and thus spends slightly less time at that stop. This lets it catch up slightly to the first bus. The effect is cumulative, and, next thing you know, you stand at your stop and watch four buses pull up in a train.

Silas

[Cervus]

Originally Posted by Silas Sparkhammer

There are also times when I can be quite confident that the next bus to stop will be full!

My record one morning was 9 full buses that passed me by before I could get on. I live on the campus route and during the start of each semester you have to get to the bus stop about 1.5 hours before your class starts if you want to make it on time, because both routes will be full. We're only 3 or 4 miles from campus but during rush times that's how long it can take to get there.

ETA: And, as I learned the hard way, claustrophobic people should not attempt to ride the campus buses at the start of the semester. If you are familiar with the Central American concept of "chicken buses", where people are packed three to a seat and standing in the aisles until there is literally no room left, you have some idea of what it's like. The drivers would seat people on the roof if they could. Plus, we've all got backpacks, which makes things even more uncomfortable.

[Jay Tea]

I'll walk any viable distance, if i've got the time I suppose this is up to about 45 minutes. My mates cried like toddlers when I suggested we stroll the half hour to the venue in London recently rather than jump in a cab. They accused me of penny pinching and I responded with accusations of rank laziness and fear of even the simplest exercise

[Floater]

A true story from real life: The underground is late because some joker has pulled the emergency brake and the driver of the connecting bus hasn't waited (tosser!). Shall I wait four hours for the next bus or take the thirty minutes walk home?

[Jonny T]

I really don't get this. speaking from my own situation:

buses run from near my house every twenty minutes. the journey into town takes about twenty-five minutes. meaning if I arrived at the bus stop on the moment one bus left, I would be looking at 45 minutes between now and when I get into town.

The distance between here and town is about a 45 minute walk from here - a couple of miles, three at most.

as such, if I arrive at the bus stop just as the last bus leaves, I'm comparing journeys of equal time. if the buses were every half hour instead of every twenty minutes, it would be quicker for me to walk. if my walking coincided with a bus being at a bus stop and I got on it, that would presumably get me into town at or around the same time.

wouldn't it?

[Steve]

Originally Posted by Jonny T

I really don't get this. speaking from my own situation:

I's not spelled out in the article, but I think the paper assumes you're already at the bus stop, and therefore you have to calculate how long it would take to walk into town from there vs. waiting for the bus + the ride.

[James G]

Generally if I can walk somewhere I will, even if it takes slightly longer, as I dislike waiting around at bus-stops and quite enjoy the walk. Of course that all depends on how far I'm travelling, but I'll quite happily walk for half an hour without even considering a bus, and will often walk for even longer.

I think this is a combination of two characteristics, cheapness and impatience, neither of which are particularly admirable. Although as a whole London scares me, one thing it does have in its favour is the fact that the population know how to use escalators. I start bouncing up and down on the balls of my feet if I'm stuck behind someone who is stationary.

[Dactyl]

I very rarely use the bus locally but use it all the time in London where the timetables are pretty useless at telling you when a bus will actually arrive but give you a vague idea of frequency.

Generally, if it's less than a twenty minute walk I'll only get on the bus if it shows up when I'm there.

The other night in Clapham my mate and I were waiting for the bus home which was showing no signs of arriving so he suggested we walk back to his, I didn't have any idea where he lived but he assured me it couldn't be more than a fifteen minute walk. Over an hour later, having waved at several buses going past when we were nowhere near a stop, we eventually walked in the front door. It was alright for him, he was drunk. I was sober and freezing.

[Andrew of Ware]

Originally Posted by Silas Sparkhammer

Now, there is a lovely mathematical demonstration for why buses tend to clump up. "We like to go in convoys, we're most gregarious," as said Flanders and Swann. This is fairly obvious; the first bus in a sequence has to stop and take time to load up all the people who have waited. The next bus has fewer people to take on, and thus spends slightly less time at that stop. This lets it catch up slightly to the first bus. The effect is cumulative, and, next thing you know, you stand at your stop and watch four buses pull up in a train.

Silas

A few years ago I bought for my dad a 'popular science' book called 'Why Do Buses Come in Threes' and other mathematical questions from everyday life when the maths involved was calculated. I often dip into when I visit him and I can recommend it for a good laugh as you learn. (Anyway, thanks for the Flanders and Swann earworm. I have had to put on my compact disc of theirs, the first track of which is 'Transport of Delight'.)

Only when no bus is due for an hour or more and your destination is less than a kilometre away is it worth walking, the American researchers said.

How quick do some people walk? A kilometre in an hour, even if the pavements are busy, seems very slow. In many town centres in the UK (and in the USA as well) there are displays saying when the next bus for each route will arrive at that bus stop so you can work out whether it will be quicker to wait or walk.

[Jonny T]

Originally Posted by Steve

I's not spelled out in the article, but I think the paper assumes you're already at the bus stop, and therefore you have to calculate how long it would take to walk into town from there vs. waiting for the bus + the ride.

so am I - I've just got to the bus stop and missed the last bus, do I wait twenty minutes for the next one and have a twenty five minute journey (45 minutes) or walk into town (45 minutes)?

[Ana Ng]

Originally Posted by Jay Tea

I'll walk any viable distance, if i've got the time I suppose this is up to about 45 minutes. My mates cried like toddlers when I suggested we stroll the half hour to the venue in London recently rather than jump in a cab. They accused me of penny pinching and I responded with accusations of rank laziness and fear of even the simplest exercise

I'm happy to walk twice as long as any mass transit trip but that's because here they more often involve stairs, with whom I have a long-standing and bloody feud.

[Richard W]

The mathematicians then worked out the variables for the journey and turned them into a formula. It takes into account d, the distance in miles Dr Chen has to travel; n, the number of bus stops; vw, Dr Chen’s walking speed; and vb, the bus’s speed. The time when the journey starts – t – equals 0, and time spent waiting is tw.

Gosh, those must be some clever mathematicians! All those variables! Hmm, let me think... it wouldn't be

t_bus = tw + n*ts + d / vb

t_walk = d / vw

where you're starting at a bus stop and ts is the average time that the bus spends at a stop (I assume they didn't miss that variable really), would it? And you're right, Andrew - does the average US mathematician really only walk at 1 km / hour?

[Richard W]

... In fact, it's slightly complicated than my post above (but not much more). New Scientist says that what they actually worked out was the optimal time that you should wait for a late bus at each stop before giving up and moving on.

Abstract of the study itself.

And the statement that it's better to walk only if the next bus is an hour away and the distance is less than a kilometre is a slightly inaccurate paraphrase of this (which is probably also a paraphrase of the same press release):

The formula does break down in extreme cases, Kominers says, when the time interval between buses is longer than an hour, for example, and your destination is only a kilometre away.

Still not really sure of that, though. (And is an hour between buses an "extreme case"? Hmm. Maybe he's not been to the UK.)

[Seaboe Muffinchucker]

Originally Posted by Silas Sparkhammer

There are also times when I can be quite confident that the next bus to stop will be full!

Originally Posted by Cervus

My record one morning was 9 full buses that passed me by before I could get on.

In my years riding buses in Seattle I can think of only one time where the driver would not let more passengers on (and that was at the last pick up stop, when the two previous busses had failed to arrive due to traffic problems).

I've been told that the answer to "is there room on the bus" is "yes, for just one more passenger" no matter how many passengers are already on the bus.

Doesn't make for a comfortable ride, but at least you do get home.

As for the OP, whether I walk or wait for the bus has everything to do with whether I feel like walking and nothing to do with time efficiency.

Seaboe

[Magpye]

Around here, the city buses come every hour - only occasionally do they come as frequently as every half-hour. Add to this the awful West-Coast sprawl of the city and, for half the year or so, cold, dark, and snow-bermed streets (often without sidewalks), and it is usually easier overall to drive. Which most people do. If the choice is between waiting for the next bus and walking, walking is usually the better choice - it will at least be warmer.

[CatPurrson]

Heh, around here you'd better just lace up your walkin' shoes if you don't have a car-- we don't have public transportation other than taxis! (There are school buses for the children, but not regular buses for everybody else.)

I'm too slow of a walker, and too out of shape to walk to school. It would take me probably at least an hour and a half, and I'm not saying how far I live from campus!

Cat"Need a ride?"Purrson