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Old 19 December 2017, 01:26 AM
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UEL UEL is offline
 
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Baseball The Gerasimov Doctrine

This is posted for comment.

Not being American, I don't have a say in how the US is run. Personal opinions do not count for foreigners. However, living in western democracy, I readily recognise the import the US has in maintaining our ability to function as a society.

The Russian interference (and potential continued influence) in the current US administration is disturbing. However, in an article that I circulated around my workplace this past autumn, it appears that this is all part of a Russian plot.

Bottom line up front: the Russians know that they cannot take on the US when it has its act together. Nor can the Russians expand to take on the US as a full peer. So, their plan... bring the US down to the Russian level.

It is called the Gerasimov Doctrine. And the Russians have been using it to excellent effect in the Ukraine, Eastern Europe and if you look at that data, in the US.

This first article is from Politico magazine, where I first learned of the doctrine: link

That lays it out well in plain speak.

This second article is the English translation of the actual paper referenced in the Politico article: link

There is a graphic towards the end of the paper that can readily be used to identify where the Russians have applied the doctrine to the US.

Some things to note:

- when Facebook released the top 10 Russian influenced ads prior to the election, 7 were pro-Trump, 2 were pro-Clinton, 1 was anti-both (doctrine to sow dissent among all the population)
- while the Republicans benefited mostly from Russian support during the election, Russian support has completely disappeared (in the doctrine to allow weakening of the administration)
- even Putin's thanking Trump for CIA support to bring down terrorists is classic Gerasimov. Russians thanking an agency that Trump despises because this same agency claims that Trump is connected to the Russians. (doctrine to sow confusion and dissent for the institutions)

There are those that believe that the Gerasimov Doctrine is a fable. It must be noted that the paper is legitimate, and it contains the views of General Gerasimov. There is no argument about that. But, every single author of a counter article on the application of the doctrine (most popular one by an Irish author) is by someone from within the borders of Russia.

This group is among the more broad minded groups I deal with. I offer this up as something to chew on. It is scary that we (the West) could be merely puppets of a Putin led effort to degrade Western abilities.

Read and digest. I will comment over the next few weeks over where I see some of the doctrine playing out in the news.
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Old 19 December 2017, 03:14 AM
jimmy101_again jimmy101_again is offline
 
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Suggests the question of how much western countries are doing the same thing to the Russians. Heck, since it seems that much, if not all, of the posts on social media and the like are done by shady contractors the US could well be using the same contractors to attack Russia that the Russians are using to attack the West.
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Old 19 December 2017, 04:06 AM
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ASL ASL is offline
 
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Ponder

So you're saying Russia might be the victim of a meat campaign?

Totally OT thought: I miss San Diego. Heck, even Japan. And Bahrain certainly had its moments. God, how I hate Norfolk...
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Old 19 December 2017, 04:24 AM
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crocoduck_hunter crocoduck_hunter is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmy101_again View Post
Suggests the question of how much western countries are doing the same thing to the Russians. Heck, since it seems that much, if not all, of the posts on social media and the like are done by shady contractors the US could well be using the same contractors to attack Russia that the Russians are using to attack the West.
Putin has a lot more control over his government and effectively a state run media. Social media attacks wouldn't have the same effect the other way.

All Putin has to worry about is disrupting countries like the US internally so they're too busy dealing with the distraction to do things to counter his actions in places like Ukraine.
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Old 19 December 2017, 10:22 AM
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ASL ASL is offline
 
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Jolly Roger

Not like we were doing or going to do much in the Ukraine anyways. In a couple decades it'll be the new normal and we'll all just do a collective shoulder shrug when Russia assures us that it has always been the legitimate ruler of the Ukraine (and I mean all of it, not just the Crimea).

China will probably take the same tack with the South "China" Sea too.

Russia's actions and, heck, even the US' post-Korea, are as clear a sign as any of the impotence of the UN and any other supposed international "law" enforcement body. Powerful countries will do what they want to do and that's just the way it is on panet Earth. Always has been. Whether we like it or not, we should acknowledge that reality and count our blessings that we're (mostly) in one of the powerful countries.
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Old 19 December 2017, 12:52 PM
dfresh dfresh is offline
 
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ASL, I think that in many ways the American people are OK with China taking the South China Sea and Russia taking Ukraine. It is easier to have just a handful of big powerful blocks. We get North America, western Europe, and Oceania, and most of us don't pay much attention to those parts of the world. Also, our culture seems to be mostly about the short term now (gee, slicing investment in development means a higher quarterly profit!) so we don't do too good on the long-term, like Russia taking a bit here, and a bit there, suddenly means they own a country.
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Old 19 December 2017, 01:23 PM
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Spit Take

Quote:
Originally Posted by dfresh View Post
ASL, I think that in many ways the American people are OK with China taking the South China Sea and Russia taking Ukraine. It is easier to have just a handful of big powerful blocks. We get North America
Tell that to UEL!

But seriously, hopefully this whole Northwest Passage dispute turns out alright. Heck, maybe we'll get lucky and global warming will reverse itself (like the natural phenomenon it is ) and we won't have to worry about the NWP until the next totally natural thaw.
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