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Old 14 March 2018, 07:07 PM
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Default Pa. 18 congressional district results: Democrat Conor Lamb maintains lead with absent

I suspect the whole title doesn't fit, so here it is:


Pa. 18 congressional district results: Democrat Conor Lamb maintains lead with absentee votes counted


Quote:
With all precincts fully reporting and absentee ballots counted, Lamb holds a 627-vote lead over Saccone [ . . . ] Lamb has claimed victory in the race, but Saccone has not conceded, and the national Republican Party hasn’t ruled out a recount. [. . . . ] election officials said the number of provisional and military ballots are typically small and would not chance the outcome of the race.
(that's 'change', not 'chance', obviously)

For those wondering why someone in NY state is bothering to post this: the district in question was considered so reliably Republican that the previous two elections weren't even contested. It went for Trump by 20 points.

A lot of people seem to be having second thoughts, either about which party to vote for or about whether to show up to vote (I expect there were some in each of those groups.)
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Old 14 March 2018, 07:14 PM
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Is this special election the reason that Trump was threatening steel tariffs? And it didn't even work?
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  #3  
Old 14 March 2018, 08:01 PM
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I'm pretty sure that Stormy Daniels was the reason Trump was threatening steel tariffs.
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Old 14 March 2018, 08:10 PM
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I'm vaguely amused at the specter of certain partisans insisting that this election, too, is completely unique and can't be used in any way to infer how November might go.
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  #5  
Old 14 March 2018, 08:12 PM
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It may not have been the only reason; but a number of people did think this election had something to do with it.

Steelworkers are among the people who tend to still be strongly unionized, though; and the Republican candidate was seen as not supporting unions, while the Democratic candidate came across as being pro-union.

And Lamb came out in favor of the tariffs, and had been making pro-tariff noises before Trump imposed them; so people who were pro-tariff had both candidates supporting them. It doesn't work real well to try to use something as a wedge issue when both candidates are on the same side of the wedge.

(Lamb on a number of issues is a standard sort of Democrat, but not on all of them.)
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Old 14 March 2018, 08:26 PM
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It probably didn't help Saccone when he tried to be like Trump by claiming Lamb not only hated America, but hated God.

That's quite a clam to put on somebody whose dedicated their life to pursuing justice--not only in the military, but in professional life as well.

~Psihala
(*So an awful lot of people who voted for him hate God and country, I guess.)
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Old 14 March 2018, 08:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NobleHunter View Post
I'm vaguely amused at the specter of certain partisans insisting that this election, too, is completely unique and can't be used in any way to infer how November might go.
On the other hand, liberals had better not get overconfident about their chances of victory.
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Old 14 March 2018, 08:53 PM
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True. We very much don't need another round of 'oh, he's bound to lose anyway, why bother showing up to vote?'
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Old 14 March 2018, 09:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thorny locust View Post
It doesn't work real well to try to use something as a wedge issue when both candidates are on the same side of the wedge.
Looks like it might have even backfired, because tariffs are a red line for a lot of fiscal conservatives, so if anything it may have been a wedge dividing Republicans from one another.
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Old 14 March 2018, 10:59 PM
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I agree we need to avoid overconfidence, but I also believe that we should not too strongly discourage celebration of victories along the way. Some people find that very disheartening.
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Old 15 March 2018, 12:17 AM
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I agree with that too, Lainie. It's one reason why I posted this thread.
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Old 15 March 2018, 06:31 AM
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The Guardian comments that the election

Quote:
(...) reveals a couple of basic facts about the electorate. The Democratic voters who were fundamentally repulsed by Hillary Clinton will come back to the fold without her on the ballot. And the Republicans who were fundamentally repulsed by Donald Trump are still voting for Democrats in 2018. If that combination holds in November, it could not only give Nancy Pelosi the speaker’s gavel again but upset the fundamentals of American politics.
Elsewhere I read that the problem may be that to get the votes like that, the Democratic party needs conservative candidates, while at the same time the members of the party are movng to the left.

What do you think?
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  #13  
Old 15 March 2018, 01:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Enrico View Post
Elsewhere I read that the problem may be that to get the votes like that, the Democratic party needs conservative candidates, while at the same time the members of the party are movng to the left.

What do you think?
I think that is of some concern, yes.

However, I also think that there are a number of issues that have been politicized left or right when there's no clear reason why they should be, or why they should have landed on the side they landed on; and also I find that many people who identify as conservative or liberal don't fall neatly into either category when you start talking about individual issues. Candidates running in a particular district may well be able to put together a combination of positions that holds together reasonably well, and which appeals to a wide enough range of voters in that district to get them elected.
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  #14  
Old 15 March 2018, 03:20 PM
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Default GOP considering recount, lawsuit after Pennsylvania special election

Republicans eyed a recount and a lawsuit over perceived irregularities in a closely watched U.S. House race in Pennsylvania where Democrat Conor Lamb clung to a slender lead in the longtime GOP stronghold friendly to President Donald Trump.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gop-con...cial-election/
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  #15  
Old 15 March 2018, 06:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thorny locust View Post
However, I also think that there are a number of issues that have been politicized left or right when there's no clear reason why they should be, or why they should have landed on the side they landed on; and also I find that many people who identify as conservative or liberal don't fall neatly into either category when you start talking about individual issues. Candidates running in a particular district may well be able to put together a combination of positions that holds together reasonably well, and which appeals to a wide enough range of voters in that district to get them elected.
Something I find sort of depressing is that, based on some analyses of the 2016 election, I think there could be a strong response to a candidate who is what we currently think of as left-of-center on economic issues, but relatively conservative on social issues. I imagine a candidate who is pro-union, favors higher taxes on the rich and corporations, raising the minimum wage, some form of universal or near-universal health insurance, strong regulation of the financial markets, and keeping Social Security strong; but who is also "tough" on immigration and crime, shows antipathy to Muslims and comes across as pro-Christianity (which means, if not actively anti-LGBT and anti-abortion, at least seemed to not to be completely favorable towards them), and so forth. I can see such a candidate having a broad appeal to working-class whites. (Someone, in other words, who actually worked for the kinds of policies Trump sometimes said he'd pursue.)

But there's not really room in either party for such a person, so I don't really see it as a viable national movement: too many of the positions would be deal-breakers for one side or the other. Which may be why so many people don't feel either party really represents them.

(Me, I originally leaned Democratic primarily on social issues, but over the years, have moved further left on economics as well, so they align with me pretty well, at least in a pragmatic sense.)
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  #16  
Old 15 March 2018, 09:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psihala View Post
Republicans eyed a recount and a lawsuit over perceived irregularities...
Well that's a surprise!


Here comes an even bigger push for "Real IDs".
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