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  #41  
Old 14 March 2019, 07:49 AM
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Originally Posted by E. Q. Taft View Post
This seems to me a little bit like the flight crew of a plane plummeting towards the ground voting not to crash, but also refusing to let the pilot actually take the controls...
Or, as EU’s deputy Brexit negotiator, Sabine Weyand put it (quoting from the Dutch PM), “like the Titanic voting for the iceberg to get out of the way”.

I think the EU would grant an extension to article 50 for a second public vote, for a new general election, for implementing necessary laws for a no-deal, and for final negotiations on a new deal the parliament has backed with majority (be it Norway plus, common market 2.0 or whatever).

But nobody knows. This is from the Guardian:

Quote:
“Why would we extend these discussions?” Barnier asked. “The discussion on article 50 is done and dusted. We have the withdrawal agreement. It is there.”

During a private meeting before his public comments, Barnier advised senior MEPs that at present there was no consensus among the EU’s member states over an extension, let alone on the conditions that would be attached.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...sels-assurance
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Originally Posted by ganzfeld View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Enrico View Post
But a union of Ulster and the Republic would spell problems with these guys:
Don't expect any recognition on the other side of the pond. Americans are generally more aware of Leprechauns than Loyalists - and that's mostly from their breakfast cereal commercials.
I made sure to choose a loyalist mural with the UK flag and the "Always British" slogan in the hope of it being self-explanatory. The unionist one was more difficult - there seem to be no pictures availabe of "fighting IRA" murals.

A breakfast cereal commercial featuring Irish Loyalists would make for a strange experience...
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  #42  
Old 14 March 2019, 11:10 AM
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Originally Posted by Don Enrico View Post
A breakfast cereal commercial featuring Irish Loyalists would make for a strange experience...
A blast of flavor in every mouthful?

I don't see the EU being too helpful, since it looks like the British government have not been really negotiating in good faith, and have not seemed to REALLY get all that leaving the EU includes.
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  #43  
Old 14 March 2019, 12:35 PM
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The UK - or at least those negotiationg on it's behalf - have been trying to make a "have the cake and eat it" strategy work - no foreigners on our shores, but freedom of movement for goods and services; no border controls, but no adherence to European health and savety goods either; ...

I'm pleased to see that the EU of 27 is having none of that.

Nevertheless, no-deal would mean economic hardships for the EU, too, so as long as there is a chance to reach a deal, the EU will be willing to try. Once it looks like there is nothing to reach, though, they are prepared for a no-deal scenario, as well.

And they are prepared - I (as a lawyer working for the Hamburg gouvernment - have been taking part in meetings on what Hamburg laws have to change in case of a no-deal Brexit. We did change a few, but for the most it is "if the UK wants to be treated as a Third Country, so be it".
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  #44  
Old 14 March 2019, 06:50 PM
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Unsurprisingly, Parliament has voted to request a delay in the implementation of Brexit.

They have also voted down a measure for a second public vote.

https://edition.cnn.com/uk/live-news...gbr/index.html
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  #45  
Old 14 March 2019, 10:24 PM
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If they vote down every possible option, then whatever happens it won't be their fault because they'll have clearly said that they didn't want it to happen. Don't blame them!

(eta) The vote on the possible second referendum was added at the last minute as a surprise; it wasn't part of the plan before today so far as I know. A second referendum might not actually have been possible in practice anyway, but it was at least supposed to be one way forward. Maybe ruling it out is simply realistic, if it couldn't have happened anyway. I'm not sure to what extent realism comes into things at the moment, though.

There's a good Marina Hyde piece from yesterday, so not entirely up-to-date, but I thought it was good even by her standards, and sums up a lot of things well. (It's satire, so no constructive suggestions or anything; just a good characterisation of the situation.)

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-europe-eu-mps


Quote:
As for what happens next, one Tory MP judged: “NFBSK knows”. Welcome to NFBSKknowsville. Population: us. In Westminster, an MP leaving the ERG meeting had called the mood “realistic” before adding: “but the question is, what is reality?”
(She doesn't name the MP who said that, but the next sentence implies it was Steve Baker, the MP for Wycombe - i.e. my constituency. He's a fairly hardcore leaver, and prominent in the ERG. He's continued to pursue his hardcore leave policies despite the fact that Wycombe voted Remain - albeit only by a small margin of 52%, but that's the same margin as the overall referendum. So he certainly isn't into standing up for the will of the people if you take "the people" to mean the people he actually represents, that is, his constituents).

Last edited by Richard W; 14 March 2019 at 10:35 PM.
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  #46  
Old 14 March 2019, 10:33 PM
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I image the little people inside their heads look like this whenever the topic comes up:



ETA: This kind of feels like watching your older brother, the one who always did everything right, fall into drugs. You wonder how you can get anything right if the good one can't?
FETA: Not that we are a beacon of goodness at this time either, it just feels like there's less hope for turning it around.
FFETA: Of course, the dark part of our soul is "happy" that we aren't the only screwed up ones.

Last edited by GenYus234; 14 March 2019 at 10:42 PM.
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  #47  
Old 15 March 2019, 12:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dfresh View Post
A blast of flavor in every mouthful?
See. This illustrates the point. No deeper than a cartoon on a cereal box.
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  #48  
Old 15 March 2019, 12:40 PM
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There's more information about what MPs voted for yesterday, including all the amendments put forward and which of those were voted on, here:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...extension-vote

So as well as ruling out a second referendum, apparently MPs ruled out an amendment that "if passed, would allow the Commons to debate next steps on Brexit on Wednesday next week."

They're ruling out further debate, as well as ruling out all the options. Odd. Albeit that one was defeated by 314 to 312...

(eta) And some context on the "ruling out a second referendum" business:

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ticle-50-delay

Quote:
Some of [May's] colleagues want to say that something else momentous was decided this evening: the rejection of a second referendum. It’s true that the Commons delivered a crushing rejection of that idea. True too that the margin of defeat will be used to taunt and torment people’s vote campaigners for days, maybe weeks, to come: “Your precious second referendum was rejected even more decisively than May’s plan back in January!” they’ll say.

But that taunt will only have a tenuous relationship to the truth, because this was hardly a real test of the idea. Labour abstained on the proposal, while even the official People’s Vote campaign said now was not the right time to push it. It was tabled by Sarah Wollaston of the Independent Group, perhaps to embarrass Labour and highlight the party’s lukewarm support for the campaign, but it was hardly smart tactics: it now allows opponents to claim there is no support in the Commons for a second vote when, in fact, there’s much more than tonight’s vote suggests. It was a misstep by the remain camp, which has demonstrated that it is far from united, and riven with tensions of its own.
I'd wondered about that, and why it was defeated so soundly when it seemed to be a popular idea. But if you look at the list of amendments tabled, in the first article, there were two others related to allowing a second referendum (and one explicitly to rule it out); they were close to duplicates but I wonder if one of the other ones would have had more support. Presumably not - maybe the one with most signatures was chosen. I don't know how it works, really.

Last edited by Richard W; 15 March 2019 at 12:53 PM.
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  #49  
Old 15 March 2019, 02:21 PM
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I think the sentence above "It was tabled by Sarah Wollaston of the Independent Group..." may be part of the reason it was voted down so strongly. The Independent Group (as you Richard, of course know) has been formed only recently by MPs leaving the parliamentary group of the Labour Party, joined a few days later by some MPs leaving the group of the Conservative Party. In they eyes of many other MPs, it probably is a group of defectors, and every proposal by them needs to be voted down.
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  #50  
Old 15 March 2019, 04:30 PM
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Yes, I think it should be interpreted as voting down that attempt to authorise a second referendum, not as voting it down in general. If somebody else suggests it later or in terms they prefer, it might get more support. They're all just making some point or other, because obviously that's what's important at the moment...
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  #51  
Old 18 March 2019, 03:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GenYus234 View Post
ETA: This kind of feels like watching your older brother, the one who always did everything right, fall into drugs. You wonder how you can get anything right if the good one can't?
FETA: Not that we are a beacon of goodness at this time either, it just feels like there's less hope for turning it around.
FFETA: Of course, the dark part of our soul is "happy" that we aren't the only screwed up ones.
So in this scenario is Canada the preening, preppy middle brother who is such a pillar of success, he makes his siblings look even worse?

Though I’ve long suspected that Canada has been working on a decades-long revenge scheme against the US. Canada decided that living well was life’s best revenge and used that as the basis for their scheme. And it worked.

Canada has government-run healthcare, while Americans have to live in fear of their creaky, inefficient profit-driven, corporate-owned version doesn’t get worse. Canada is governed by Justin Trudeau who is very easy on the eyes and is probably semi-competent at the job he was elected to fill. Whereas, the US is governed by a rancid Cheeto-colored con man with a constant racist diarrhea of the mouth, who possesses no visible skills outside of having money and being someone people have heard of, which somehow was enough to get him elected.

If that was your plan, Canada, gotta say well-played, you polite bastards. Out of curiosity, though, what are you seeking revenge for? Is it all those hippies we sent up there during Vietnam?
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  #52  
Old 18 March 2019, 02:32 PM
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I think Canada would be the baby of the family who lived at home until the folks gently encouraged him to move out. They've done well enough for themselves, but never got much attention due to being in the shadow of the middle child (the US).

Also, you've not been paying attention to the news, Trudeau is in the midst of a scandal of his own. Not so bad as any of Trump's, but Canada is new at this and is getting a slow start.
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  #53  
Old 18 March 2019, 04:41 PM
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According to Scandinavia and the World, Canada was France's kid who was adopted by Britain after he was already a teenager and that's why he's better behaved than America or Australia.
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  #54  
Old 19 March 2019, 09:16 AM
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Another update - no idea how closely others are following (or whether they care), but...

Apparently Theresa May's plan all along really has been to keep doing the same thing over and over again until it's too late for anybody to do anything but agree with her, which to some extent explains why nobody has been talking about some of the things I'd thought seemed inevitable. However, the Speaker, John Bercow, refused a couple of days ago to let her put forward her plan for a third vote unless it had actually changed. (You could argue that it had changed a bit before her second vote, in that she had a few more assurances that the backstop arrangements really would only be there until we'd fixed the problem, even if the proposal itself hadn't changed - they literally changed the font and spacing to make it look different. But this time there was no way to argue it was different).

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...t-deal-blocked

Quote:
Quoting from the guide to parliamentary procedure, Erskine May, Bercow said the question “may not be brought forward again during the same session” and that it was a “strong and longstanding convention” dating back to 1604. ...
Which is as near to "unconstitutional" as we get. (And to think I sometimes have doubts about the idea of a written constitution).

So the upshot is that the government is in even more chaos than usual, but (since, when I last wrote a long post, I had no idea that May was planning to ask for a third vote on the same plan) we're in the position I thought then - that either the EU agrees to a long extension (meaning many months and more EU elections), which seems as though it's unlikely to happen despite being taken for granted in certain circles here, or we leave with no deal in ten days' time.

So the new bit for me was that May really did think she could keep asking for her deal to be approved until the last minute, when everybody would back down and things would be OK. Which is why there seemed to be less panic than I'd have expected.

(And in many ways, her deal being approved would still be the best way out, even as a Remainer. But the fact that "even as a Remainer" I think it's the only available compromise at the moment is enough for some Leavers to seriously claim it as a betrayal and "not really leaving" and so on. There's a faction on that side that are so unreasonable that they genuinely can't accept any form of compromise at all - the moment there looks like being an agreement, it must therefore be because they've been betrayed, and the only thing that will keep them happy is to force people into exactly what they want, while everybody else is unhappy. And now it's no longer an available compromise anyway).
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  #55  
Old 19 March 2019, 10:22 AM
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Whether or not it remains being an available compromise depends on how the Speaker interprets the rule about a changed proposal. If the EU grants an extension, you could argue that "Brexit with this deal on the 29th March" and "Brexit with this deal on 29th June" are two differnt things...

There is also talk about ending the parliamentary session and starting a new one (no idea how that would work - gerneral elections?) to circumvent the "not twice during the same session" rule.

But it seems that Primeminister May was indeed surprised by this rule and Speaker Berkow's interpretation. You would expect somebody advising her on rules like that...?
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  #56  
Old 19 March 2019, 02:30 PM
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It is really troubling that she seems to have no real plan, besides "keep doing this thing, and run out the clock!" Did anyone in her party think there was another plan, or were all the Conservative leadership just going with this non-plan?
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  #57  
Old 19 March 2019, 02:39 PM
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Are there really that many other plans she could have? Negotiating a new deal doesn't seem to be very likely, given the time remaining after the first deal was rejected and the EU's insistence on not renegotiating. Cancelling Brexit is a step that very few MPs would want given how it would be seen as opposing the non-binding will of the people. And only a few MPs want a hard Brexit, which would seem to be the only other option. There are a number of sub-plans and minor alterations to other plans, but there don't seem to be many options for her to choose from.
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  #58  
Old 19 March 2019, 11:46 PM
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Originally Posted by dfresh View Post
Did anyone in her party think there was another plan, or were all the Conservative leadership just going with this non-plan?
I almost had the impression that a lot of people did know that was her plan, and were planning to vote for her deal eventually as well, after having rejected it enough times that they could claim to have "put up a fight". If so, those people's plans would also have been screwed up by Bercow's ruling...
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  #59  
Old 19 March 2019, 11:56 PM
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What if the Queen goes to Paris in her undies (full length modesty undies, to be sure) and specifically requests another vote on international television? Would that be enough to overcome the constitutional barriers?
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  #60  
Old 20 March 2019, 03:27 PM
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We've only asked for a three-month delay, apparently (until June). This does at least rule out asking for a longer delay later, because of the European elections issue, so it now seems certain that we will be out of the EU by June at the latest, with either no-deal or something very similar to Theresa May's current deal, since there's no time to do anything else. (Unless they decide to revoke article 50 without a second referendum, of course - I suppose that's still a possibility. Assuming that would still be allowed in the extension period, which is another assumption that may not be true).

Another vaguely funny article, although as usual most of the humour is from hollow laughter at things that sound too absurd to be true, but are:

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-liechtenstein

I liked this line:

Quote:
The people in charge have had three years to make a success of Brexit, and here we are nine days away from Brexit and we don’t even know if we’re nine days away from Brexit yet.
Which, as I said, sounds like a joke but is a plain statement of truth.

And this one, about how Bercow...

Quote:
... invoked a parliamentary convention so old that not even Jacob Rees-Mogg saw it coming from his vantage point of 1837.
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