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Old 26 October 2017, 04:03 PM
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Icon18 JFK documents to be released

Conspiracy theorists rejoice! They'll be awfully disappointed if the files show that Oswald acted alone and without orders from someone other than the voice(s) in his head.
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  #2  
Old 26 October 2017, 04:06 PM
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But of course they'll say that the documents released are part of the conspiracy, and the real documents have been kept hidden.
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Old 26 October 2017, 04:44 PM
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I have been an avid student of the JFK assassination for decades. My brother and I read everything we could get our hands on (including conspiracy theory material) as teens. I have been waiting for this day for a while.

What I expect out of this is quite dull. I suspect that it is the post-event investigations into Oswald. I suspect that there was no serious knowledge of Oswald other than his move to the Soviet Union and return to the US. I am interested in what they knew about Mexico City.

I certainly don't think there will be any smoking gun (pun intended) on another shooter. History has already shown that Oswald acted alone.
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Old 26 October 2017, 04:56 PM
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I suspect there has to be something in the papers, otherwise why were they sealed for so long? I don't think it will be a game changer, but I expect there is some information that was considered too incendiary for it to be released at the time. For example, proof that the theories about Cuba and/or organized crime were at least partially correct.
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Old 26 October 2017, 04:59 PM
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Originally Posted by GenYus234 View Post
I suspect there has to be something in the papers, otherwise why were they sealed for so long? I don't think it will be a game changer, but I expect there is some information that was considered too incendiary for it to be released at the time. For example, proof that the theories about Cuba and/or organized crime were at least partially correct.

DH thinks that the papers will give the CIA a black eye, presumably for not having any intel on Oswald.
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Old 26 October 2017, 06:36 PM
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I hadn't thought about that, but that's a interesting possibility. IIUC, he thinks the papers were withheld for so long not because they contained potentially damaging information, but because the lack of information they don't contain would have been potentially damaging to the careers and/or budgets of those who should have been collecting that information.
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  #7  
Old 26 October 2017, 07:28 PM
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The link provided explains why and when classified information can be declassified. Like you said, if information contained could harm personal or U.S. relationships with foreign countries, it could stay classified. But since it has been 50+ years since the assassination, and probably a good portion of the people involved with the case have since passed and the U.S. maybe have some better relations with Cuba, the information won't hurt anyone's career or jeopardize anyone's life.

https://www.justice.gov/open/declass...sification-faq
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  #8  
Old 27 October 2017, 01:41 AM
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On my way to work this morning, the local radio talk station aired an interview of a now retired federal judge from the area who was on a review commission in 1992. While he didn't see everything that will be released, he said people who are looking for explosive revelations will probably be pretty disappointed.

Much of what he did see back then, he said, was heavily redacted. What was left was actually somewhat boring.
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  #9  
Old 27 October 2017, 02:08 AM
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Lee Harvey Oswald did it, but I can understand all the conspiracy theories surrounding the JFK assassination. It seems inconceivable that a handsome, well-educated scion of a wealthy family, currently serving in the highest office in the land, gets killed by a loser Mama's boy who failed at everything he tried, except killing the president, unfortunately.

Pop culture always depicts political assassins as being all grizzled badasses, but the sad, honest truth is, as Arrogant Worms puts it, History Is Made By Stupid People. If you look over history, most assassinations were done by losers who had the best possible luck at the worst possible time. It certainly is true, regarding presidential assassins. About the only one who wasn't a complete loser was John Wilkes Booth who had been making a successful living as an actor before all this, but the rest? Complete and total losers, every last one of them.

Though it was kind of sad that it took us until McKinley before we were like, "Y'know, maybe we should have some kind of security protecting the president so they can't be taken out by whatever nutjob asshole in the general vicinity."

Unfortunately the Secret Service wasn't able to save Kennedy, but there's a reason that he's so far been the last president assassinated since McKinley.
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  #10  
Old 27 October 2017, 02:17 AM
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Though it came pretty close with Reagan.
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  #11  
Old 27 October 2017, 02:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mouse View Post
If you look over history, most assassinations were done by losers who had the best possible luck at the worst possible time. It certainly is true, regarding presidential assassins. About the only one who wasn't a complete loser was John Wilkes Booth who had been making a successful living as an actor before all this, but the rest? Complete and total losers, every last one of them.
In an American-centric sort of way, you are correct. But in the rest of the world, it is not the same.

Just in my lifetime I can recall several assassinations that were not done by losers:

Anwar Sadat, President of Egypt - 1979 - Assassinated while attending a parade
Presidents of Burundi and Rwanda - 1994 - Assassinated in a plane shot down by a missile, resulting in the Rwandan Genocide
Indira Gandhi and her son Rajiv Gandhi - 1984 and 1991 (I believe) - both assassinated by bodyguards
Rafiq Hariri, PM of Lebanon - 2005 - Assassinated by a Hezbollah car bomb
Benazair Bhutto, Pakistan - 2007 - Assassinated in ambush in a crowd
Olaf Palme, PM of Sweden - 1986 - Gunned down professionally in the street
Lord Louis Mountbatten - 1975 - bomb on his boat planted by IRA

I finally opened up Wikipedia to see if there were any that were carried out by losers, and for significant persons, there weren't. However, prior to my lifetime, there were, obviously.

Archduke Franz Ferdinand
Anastasio Somoza García, President of Nicaragua
Luis Miguel Sánchez Cerro, President of Peru

I did notice, however, that there was a considerable number of losers that killed others in the US outside of heads of state:

- politicians like Gabby Giffords and those targetted by Dylan Roof
- John Lennon
- Mike Swoboda, mayor of a town (shot by a citizen on a rampage)
- Multiple abortion providers whose shooters believed they were working on behalf of God
- a couple other celebrities (Selena and Christina Grimmie) killed by fans

So, I can see where the idea that the bumblers are leading the wagon.

Meanwhile, outside the US, it seems largely a result of terror acts (since the end of WWII) or political fighting.

Very interesting to see different perspectives.
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  #12  
Old 27 October 2017, 03:03 AM
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Not that it makes any difference but Mountbatten 1979.

And Olaf Palme "professionally"? Do we know something the police and courts don't? The accused whose conviction was overturned was the quintessential loser type. Otherwise, unsolved.
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Old 27 October 2017, 04:25 AM
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Randy Blaser has a good little column on this in the Chicago Tribune. (Sorry for the lack of link and quote but their website is a mess and I don't really wanna.) Basically he says we already know the truth about the assassination (and, like the conclusion or not, a loner and loser did it) but there's lots of things that have been covered up about Kennedy that may come out from these docs.
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Old 27 October 2017, 10:12 AM
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The BBC is reporting that a UK local newspaper, the Cambridge News, received a tip-off about the assassination 25 minutes before the fatal shot was fired. The BBC says that the document saying this was released in July, but not reported at the time.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england...shire-41773716

What happened after the tip-off was given is not clear from the article, but the Cambridge Police and MI5 are mentioned.

As nearly always when some papers are released, more questions are raised than answered.

1. Why was a UK local paper singled out for the tip-off?
2. Was it given specifically to the reporter who answered the 'phone or to the newspaper or because the paper was in Cambridge?
3. Cambridge University from World War II into, perhaps, the 1960s, recruited a lot of spies for the Soviet Union (Philby, Blunt, Mclaren, etc). Is this significant?
4. Why was MI5, apparently, contacted? MI5 deals with home security and it is MI6 which deals with foreign security. (Although, of course, the UK government does not officially recognise MI6 as existing. See Yes Minister.)
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Old 27 October 2017, 10:29 AM
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It seems far far more likely that, on any given day, some newspaper in the world is going to get a "anonymous tip" about something big "about to happen". When it does, voila. Not the least bit compelling without more info. And here's the supposed "tip":
Quote:
The caller said only that the Cambridge News reporter should call the American Embassy in London for some big news and then hung up.
How often does that (or something similarly vague) happen every day at one or more newspapers? (Not to mention any of the numerous other ways this could have gone wrong. The time could easily be off, for example.)
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Old 27 October 2017, 02:07 PM
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Originally Posted by GenYus234 View Post
I hadn't thought about that, but that's a interesting possibility. IIUC, he thinks the papers were withheld for so long not because they contained potentially damaging information, but because the lack of information they don't contain would have been potentially damaging to the careers and/or budgets of those who should have been collecting that information.
Clarification: DH thinks that releasing the papers would embarrass the Secret Service as well.
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Old 27 October 2017, 06:39 PM
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Originally Posted by ganzfeld View Post
Not that it makes any difference but Mountbatten 1979.
That's what I get from doing it from memory. Thanks.

Quote:
And Olaf Palme "professionally"? Do we know something the police and courts don't? The accused whose conviction was overturned was the quintessential loser type. Otherwise, unsolved.
Fair point on Olaf Palme from a conviction point of view. There is a reason why Pettersen was not convicted. He could not have achieved it.

The facts are:

- killed with a handgun which is hard to come by in Sweden
- was identified as an ambush type of assassination
- killer left no clues as to who did it
- made a clean getaway

Either it was a loser who did everything right, or it was a trained killer. Applying Ochkam's Razor, I'd go with trained killer. As do most who read it.

And in fairness to you, ganz, there is equally compelling support the other way.
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Old 28 October 2017, 02:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UEL View Post
In an American-centric sort of way, you are correct. But in the rest of the world, it is not the same.
Hey, I did specify that I was talking about presidents. Kind of figured that conveyed the American-centric nature of my rant. Though I might check out some of the others on your list. I'm starting to wonder if America is known for incompetent assassins, unlike the rest of the world.

Then I remember stuff like you mentioned involving the assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand, a plot with so many bungling conspirators it almost comes across as a rejected Keystone Kops script and would be funny, were it not for the fact that it succeeded and we got WWI, WWII, and nearly every major conflict of the 20th century as a result.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DawnStorm View Post
Clarification: DH thinks that releasing the papers would embarrass the Secret Service as well.
I can sort of see something there. The Secret Service had to be either incredibly dumb or willfully blind regarding the hatred the city of Dallas bore towards Kennedy. On the day Kennedy landed at love field, Confederate flags flew rightside up in Dallas, while the American ones flew upside down and both Ladybird Johnson and Adlai Stevenson had been subjected to spit showers from Dallas voters, the spitters predominantly being made up of middle-class housewives.

Clearly there was a ton of animosity towards Kennedy in that area, making you wonder why the Secret Service wasn't going to extra lengths to protect Kennedy. I'd be interested if those papers had some information regarding that.

Though I imagine it would make more sense to everyone if the assassin had been some rightwing nutbar who got off a lucky shot, than some pissant communist Mama's boy. While UEL is right in that not all Assassins were complete and total losers who had a stroke of good luck at the worst possible time, I stand by that statement when it comes to guys who took out American presidents.
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Old 28 October 2017, 02:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mouse View Post
Then I remember stuff like you mentioned involving the assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand, a plot with so many bungling conspirators it almost comes across as a rejected Keystone Kops script and would be funny, were it not for the fact that it succeeded and we got WWI, WWII, and nearly every major conflict of the 20th century as a result.
That's a bit of a misnomer. The political situation of Europe at the time guaranteed that there was going to be a major war, the only question was what was going to trigger it. Now, a different trigger could have resulted in a very large difference in which countries were on which side, though.
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Old 28 October 2017, 04:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mouse View Post
Hey, I did specify that I was talking about presidents. Kind of figured that conveyed the American-centric nature of my rant. Though I might check out some of the others on your list. I'm starting to wonder if America is known for incompetent assassins, unlike the rest of the world.
I wasn't poking holes in your post. I just found it interesting the difference in perspective when you keep it in the US vs the rest of the world.

Your American assassins, when adding in James Earl Ray and Sirhan Sirhan, and attempted assassins such as Hinkley, definitely do look like the US is the spot where losers with a gun can change the course of history.

I am not big on assassinations, but the Kennedy one is gripping from my perspective.
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