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Old 29 January 2013, 01:49 AM
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Icon18 An Apple Conspiracy? Theories on That $500 Close

Shares of Apple (AAPL) closed at 500 on Friday, Jan. 18. Not 499.99, not 500.01 — five zero zero point zero zero dollars on the nose. There’s a long history of market watchers having cried conspiracy on Apple stock and for some observers, the impossibly round number was just too much of a coincidence. “I still have that bridge to sell you if you don’t think the fix was in on this,” wrote John Gruber an Apple über-blogger.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles...-the-500-close
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Old 29 January 2013, 01:56 AM
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If they were able to fix it, why wouldn't they pick an odd number rather than an "impossibly round" one? Real life "villains" don't broadcast their actions through obvious tells for the "superheroes" to discover.
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Old 29 January 2013, 02:00 AM
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Ah but they know you know that think that way so they intentionally pick a number that no-one will believe they would choose because it is too obvious a choice.

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Old 29 January 2013, 02:37 AM
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I seriously doubt that John Gruber was being serious about the whole "“I still have that bridge to sell you if you don’t think the fix was in on this" bit. I have read a bunch of his articles and his one liners can go both ways. Plus the guy isn't like other Apple bloggers who have serious insiders into Apple.

I have never seen Gruber take on a conspiratorial tone on Apple unless he he is playing devil's advocate (which I think is what he is actually doing in that instance). He has discussed the irrationality of people trying to short Apple stock by spreading rumors and basing the stock price and forecasts on said rumors.

Anyhow, it's kinds silly to suspect a conspiracy. It's just a coincidence. I bet other companies stock has done something similar before too.
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Old 29 January 2013, 07:52 AM
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What makes it "impossible" rather than a 1% probability*? If the average stock trader or market watcher is that innumerate then it's not surprising the economy is in a mess. Or is the "conspiracy theory" coming from somewhere else? (I suppose a "market watcher" could be anybody, not just somebody who actually influences the economy).

* I was assuming that they thought ending in .00 was the impossibility. I guess if it's ending in four zeroes that they think is impossible, it's only 1 in 10,000 but that's still quite a long way off "impossible". And if for some reason they need a 5 at the beginning as well then it would depend on the typical range of prices. If only the conspiracy theorists would be more precise about what they think is so unlikely.

(eta) Yes, yes, I know - since I mentioned innumeracy I'd better point out that I'm assuming that the stock price is equally likely to be anywhere on a scale with ten thousand points that encompasses the value 500.00. If this stock price is typically somewhere between 0 and 50, then maybe 500.00 is extremely unlikely. Equally, if it usually varies between 499.95 and 500.05 then it's a lot more likely. As I said, it would be nice if the conspiracy theorists were more specific.

Last edited by Richard W; 29 January 2013 at 08:05 AM.
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