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Old 21 May 2018, 03:46 PM
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UEL UEL is offline
Join Date: 01 August 2004
Location: Fredericton, Canada
Posts: 9,367

Originally Posted by thorny locust View Post
-- UEL, the USA's been through worse. I really wouldn't write us off just yet.
I'm not so sure. From an outsider's perspective the US has become an less strustworthy and unreliable security, business and political player. Even to the point that Canada has started shifting our military and political efforts away from being good neighbours to the US and working with others. And we are not alone.

- CANZUK has become as force whereby the 4 nations of UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand will start to eliminate tariffs, promote freedom of movement and share much more information. The UK is looking to do this because the post-Brexit UK needs something to help it survive. Australia and New Zealand want it because it offers good access to North America and Europe. Canada wants it because most of our trade goes south, but we have a trading partner who wants to punish us regularly. The US does not like it because if this goes through, it means that goods exported to Canada can reasonably make it to Asia and Europe without tariffs and other profits. Likewise, foreign (read Asian) goods can be imported into the US without duty. Further, it will see freedom of movement of people from all four countries. Including Asian-Australians and Arab-British able to come to Canada without difficulty.

- Canada is creating military agreements with a whole plethora of other nations due to the US closing shop to working with other nations (in many small agreements, the US ceased working under the conditions into which they agreed to work). Canada now has agreements with the Netherlands (not too bad, another NATO partner) and Sweden (not a NATO partner). We are also going to be working with the Finns (right next to Russia) and Jamaica.

- many major businesses are shifting their efforts and staffs away from the US. The way the US has worked for 25 years is that if you want a government contract, you have to be situated in the US. So, major corporations from other nations would open up shop in the US, and for the most part, conduct most of their operations there. So, while a company may be British, its head office in the UK would employ 50 people and that would work well for promoting and conducting business in Europe, the American office would be 1000 people, and conduct business in the US, Asia, the Americas, Africa and Europe. Now, many of these companies are expanding their home business, taking on the role of the company in the rest of the world, and reducing their American footprint to the minimum to work in the US.

All this, if there is a recovery period, will take a generation to recover from. And with pressures from the BRICS (business), Russia (security) and dwindling effectiveness as the world's superpower (politics), I am not that optimistic for it.

But this is a case where I hope I am wrong.
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