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Old 01 June 2014, 01:09 AM
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geminilee geminilee is offline
Join Date: 02 December 2005
Location: New Orleans, LA
Posts: 11,518

The weather analogy is a good one. Economics is a complex system (even if it does turn out to follow simple rules when broken down instance by instance) and thus chaos theory applies. You can't predict complex systems more than a few steps out, because there are too many variables.

This does not mean that economics* is a worthless field, but it does mean that predictions become less and less reliable the further out they are.

* Or meteorology, or evolution, or any other study of complex systems.
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