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Forum: Trivia 11 February 2014, 02:00 AM
Replies: 81
Views: 74,499
Posted By Richard W
I think you may have stated the terms of the...

I think you may have stated the terms of the problem too clearly in your first post about this, by emphasising the actual disease rate, so that the mistake that confuses people isn't obvious, Steve....
Forum: Trivia 10 February 2014, 09:52 PM
Replies: 81
Views: 74,499
Posted By Richard W
"Analysis"? I'm too lazy to do analysis... I...

"Analysis"? I'm too lazy to do analysis... I think you must be doing your own and imagining I did it.



Well, yes, that's the point. As opposed to a 99% chance which would be the naive...
Forum: Trivia 08 February 2014, 04:27 PM
Replies: 81
Views: 74,499
Posted By Richard W
If you're trying to come up with an illustration...

If you're trying to come up with an illustration to make it clearer to somebody who can't get it from a more mathematical explanation, though, why would you complicate it unnecessarily by having 100...
Forum: Trivia 08 February 2014, 04:16 PM
Replies: 81
Views: 74,499
Posted By Richard W
I want to draw some pictures, but it's too much...

I want to draw some pictures, but it's too much trouble...

You've got three boxes, initially with a 1/3 chance that the prize is in each box.

The player picks one box, so there's a 1/3 chance...
Forum: Trivia 08 February 2014, 12:36 AM
Replies: 81
Views: 74,499
Posted By Richard W
Yes, exactly. The mistake most people make with...

Yes, exactly. The mistake most people make with it is not taking the disease rate into account at all. (Which I guess is an advantage of my version with the unicorn, since I don't have to state the...
Forum: Trivia 07 February 2014, 09:16 PM
Replies: 81
Views: 74,499
Posted By Richard W
It's not quite that simple since there's a 5%...

It's not quite that simple since there's a 5% chance it will miss the true positive - I think that's a factor so that the actual answer comes out to exactly 2% though. (I can't be arsed to do the...
Forum: Trivia 07 February 2014, 09:14 PM
Replies: 81
Views: 74,499
Posted By Richard W
I once had a long argument with my dad about that...

I once had a long argument with my dad about that one, Steve. I think Ben Goldacre (Bad Science guy) used it to illustrate a statistical point in one of his articles, and my dad was convinced he was...
Forum: Trivia 07 February 2014, 05:01 PM
Replies: 81
Views: 74,499
Posted By Richard W
I do (think I) remember being confused for a...

I do (think I) remember being confused for a moment when I first heard the Monty Hall problem, but now the right answer is so obvious and intuitive that I can't remember why, and have trouble seeing...
Forum: Trivia 06 February 2014, 05:37 PM
Replies: 81
Views: 74,499
Posted By Richard W
ATNM, they may be using "cross section" as a...

ATNM, they may be using "cross section" as a measure of size, which is a concept used in particle physics to measure (essentially) how likely things are to hit each other (well, interact with each...
Forum: Trivia 06 February 2014, 05:16 PM
Replies: 81
Views: 74,499
Posted By Richard W
This one will become false if we wait a bit......

This one will become false if we wait a bit... assuming it's still true; their source is dated 2012. (Apparently they were born in 1924 and 1928. Given that Tyler himself was born in 1790 that's...
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