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Forum: Trivia 11 February 2014, 02:06 AM
Replies: 81
Views: 74,301
Posted By Steve
Yeah, there's a book by Gerd Gigerenzer...

Yeah, there's a book by Gerd Gigerenzer (http://www.amazon.com/Calculated-Risks-Know-Numbers-Deceive/dp/0743254236) where he says that studies show if you ask doctors the question phrased one way,...
Forum: Trivia 11 February 2014, 01:43 AM
Replies: 81
Views: 74,301
Posted By Steve
But the point is that the naive mistake is to...

But the point is that the naive mistake is to mistake the accuracy of the test for the chance that the test is correct in one specific instance. When you pointed out above: you're right. But the...
Forum: Trivia 08 February 2014, 10:17 PM
Replies: 81
Views: 74,301
Posted By Steve
No, in that case your chances really are 50/50. ...

No, in that case your chances really are 50/50. Well, you can switch if you want, but you have the same odds if you stay.

ETA: I'm assuming that if the coin toss had gone the other way, and if...
Forum: Trivia 07 February 2014, 09:45 PM
Replies: 81
Views: 74,301
Posted By Steve
Yeah, I sometimes point out that even if the...

Yeah, I sometimes point out that even if the disease is eradicated, we'd expect 5% of the population to test positive, which shows that you need to take the initial rate into consideration.

By...
Forum: Trivia 07 February 2014, 09:00 PM
Replies: 81
Views: 74,301
Posted By Steve
Another math problem that people often get wrong...

Another math problem that people often get wrong is this. A certain disease strikes 1 out of 1000 people, totally at random. There's a test for the disease that's 95% accurate. If you have the...
Forum: Trivia 07 February 2014, 05:00 PM
Replies: 81
Views: 74,301
Posted By Steve
Plus whether .999.... = 1. I think Monty Hall...

Plus whether .999.... = 1. I think Monty Hall might be the most famous of the bunch though, so, yeah, probably that.
Forum: Trivia 06 February 2014, 04:54 PM
Replies: 81
Views: 74,301
Posted By Steve
True things that sound false

When you get a kidney transplant, they usually just leave your original kidneys in your body and put the 3rd kidney in your pelvis.

Mammoths were alive when the Great Pyramid was being built.
...
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