snopes.com  

Go Back   snopes.com > Search Forums

Showing results 1 to 8 of 8
Search took 0.00 seconds.
Search: Posts Made By: Hero_Mike
Forum: Trivia 09 February 2014, 04:11 AM
Replies: 81
Views: 74,323
Posted By Hero_Mike
To me, "brute force" means working it out...

To me, "brute force" means working it out exhaustively - finding out all four categories of test results and then figuring out the chances of a true positive. It isn't just solving by example - as I...
Forum: Trivia 09 February 2014, 03:52 AM
Replies: 81
Views: 74,323
Posted By Hero_Mike
Canada Sorry, but this is completely wrong. To work out...

Sorry, but this is completely wrong. To work out the odds, it is necessary to know the frequency of the disease, then divide them up into two groups - healthy and diseased - and then apply the...
Forum: Trivia 08 February 2014, 11:46 PM
Replies: 81
Views: 74,323
Posted By Hero_Mike
erwins/Steve - the "omniscient" host is part of...

erwins/Steve - the "omniscient" host is part of the premise which creates the paradox. In the classic 3-door example, one figures that eliminating one of the 3 choices creates a 50/50 chance at...
Forum: Trivia 08 February 2014, 09:54 PM
Replies: 81
Views: 74,323
Posted By Hero_Mike
Don't go so far as 100 doors - just go to 4, then...

Don't go so far as 100 doors - just go to 4, then 5 if necessary. Changing the game and leaving it as more than just a single choice is, indeed, moving the goalposts and changing the game. (How...
Forum: Trivia 08 February 2014, 03:52 AM
Replies: 81
Views: 74,323
Posted By Hero_Mike
I'm not using the standard Bayes formulas - I'm...

I'm not using the standard Bayes formulas - I'm actually working this out by brute force, because I want to see the trend for various disease rates, more of a practical exercise. That ratio I mention...
Forum: Trivia 08 February 2014, 03:12 AM
Replies: 81
Views: 74,323
Posted By Hero_Mike
Canada *sigh* Microsoft Excel works very well for this....

*sigh* Microsoft Excel works very well for this.

Using the above rates (true positive 99.7%, true negative 99.95%), an infection rate of 0.6%, and a population of 1 million, here's what I get.
...
Forum: Trivia 08 February 2014, 02:53 AM
Replies: 81
Views: 74,323
Posted By Hero_Mike
I assume the tests which have high numbers of...

I assume the tests which have high numbers of false positives, are for rare diseases. The clinical definition of "rare" vary, from 1/1,000 right up to 1/200,000, but the chances of a positive...
Forum: Trivia 07 February 2014, 10:45 PM
Replies: 81
Views: 74,323
Posted By Hero_Mike
Canada If 10% of people have the disease - 100 out of...

If 10% of people have the disease - 100 out of 1000, then there will be 95 true positives, and 5 false negatives, and of the 900 who don't have it, there will be 855 true negatives, and 45 false...
Showing results 1 to 8 of 8

 
Forum Jump

All times are GMT. The time now is 05:13 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.